Nobody Wants to Blink First
By Garrett Williams, MSF · Founder & Managing Partner, PTP Partners — August 19, 2026
The market I am seeing today is one that is inherently fickle. There is much to unpack as we navigate it, with all its current challenges and obstacles. Much of these are still the same as they have been, with sellers not willing to take their losses and move on. Which, quite frankly, is a hard ask for anyone. It only seems simple when you’re on the other side of the deal, with everything to gain.
But, and I do mean BUT, what I am starting to see as time goes on is that prices are softening on the seller side. I believe as their loans are getting closer to coming due, sellers have started cracking, basically wiping out all the equity they came in with, and in some cases, a portion of the senior debt too. Rather than foreclose on the properties, some lenders are taking the losses and writing them off.
We’re starting to see this dynamic play out on the ground. Picture a hypothetical 126-unit Class B deal trading 20 to 30% below its 2022 basis, with the lender taking a loss on a portion of its own senior debt rather than foreclosing. That’s the kind of cracking we expect to see more of as loans keep coming due, and it’s exactly the setup that creates opportunity for buyers who are ready to move.
With this, I am seeing deals slowly but surely (definitely slowly) begin to trade again. At the same time though, while speaking with brokers, I have found that there are some rare cases where sellers are still able to refinance into more agency debt and kick the can even further down the road. I’m not sure how much longer that strategy will last, but at least from what I can tell, things are moving in the right direction as far as transactions go, and that is a win to say the least.
In the Sunbelt, irrespective of the amount of supply that was delivered, the demand has been sticky. People are still moving there in search of new jobs and a better cost of living, as it has been in the past. And lucky for them, everything is on sale right about now since concessions haven’t yet burned off.
According to Colliers, Charlotte’s multifamily market showed signs of stabilization in Q2 2026, as demand nearly matched new deliveries. More than 5,000 units were absorbed during the quarter, allowing occupancy to hold steady despite another wave of new supply entering the market. Something qualitative that I have been experiencing recently is how often people have mentioned moving to Charlotte to me lately. These are colleagues, friends, and people I went to college with, all expressing the same thing to me, and this is all without me mentioning the city itself, just North Carolina in general.
This is why we are so bullish on the Charlotte market. If you just looked at the market with the previous data and how much supply was delivered, you probably would be steering away. But that very reason is why we are investing there. Those insights from associates and friends alike are something you simply cannot get from a spreadsheet. That signal, along with newer development costs skyrocketing, will eventually create a market that is supply-constrained. And that intersection is just where we want to be.
Thanks for reading Edition 9 of The Basis. If this added value, forward it to someone who should be reading it.
— Garrett
The Basis is a biweekly newsletter covering multifamily market data, underwriting frameworks, and investment strategy.